Confusion in Pakistan: What happens now? | Explained News
Both Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif have claimed victory in Pakistan’s elections. There is unrest on the streets, including reports of violence in parts of the country. And like always, allegations of rigging and election manipulation are rife.
Results of Pakistan’s February 8 (Thursday) elections have thrown the country into uncertainty. Against all odds, independents loyal to the jailed Imran Khan continue to lead in the race. But will they be able to form the government? Just what happens now?
![](https://data.indianexpress.com/election2019/track_1x1.jpg)
Not the cakewalk Nawaz expected
An old saying in Pakistan media circles goes like this: “The Pakistan Army has never won a war, but never lost an election.” Elections in Pakistan have simply been a tool for the Army (referred to as the Establishment by Pakistani media) to install a favourable regime.
This election was supposed to be no different. After falling out with Imran Khan, the Establishment decided to back old-horse Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan was jailed and slapped with multiple sentences which would keep him out of the race. His aides and allies faced persecution, and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was banned, forcing Imran-loyalists to run as independents. Leaderless, with a crippled organisation, and under pressure from the Establishment, many from PTI simply broke away to form their own parties, while ones who remained loyal struggled to campaign.
The stage was thus set for Nawaz Sharif to take a victory lap on February 8. Most commentators, in Pakistan and abroad, expected the decimated PTI to flounder while the Establishment-backed PML-N cantered to victory.
Yet, when results started to trickle in Thursday night, it was clear that Imran Khan’s popularity among masses had translated to his loyalists’ electoral showing — despite having the full force of the Establishment behind him, it was not going to be a cakewalk for Nawaz after all.
Allegations of rigging and election interference
PTI’s surprising performance meant that the Establishment had to resort to manipulating results to prevent an undesirable outcome. Results were thus delayed, and internet and mobile services suspended in many parts of the country, even as Pakistani social media went awash with videos showing alleged rigging and manipulation.
“The Miraculous Counting”
The top half of the image is the results of NA 71 when 99 percent votes have been counted.
The bottom half of the image shows the results after the “miraculous” last 1 percent were counted.
Last 1 % decreased the votes of @RehanaImtiazDar by 31K and… pic.twitter.com/odoPcAV3GG
— Dr Waqas Nawaz (@WaqasnawazMD) February 9, 2024
PTI-backed independents with massive leads suddenly lost thousands of votes from their tally, and down-and-out PML-N candidates made improbable comebacks. Clashes between citizens and the authorities broke out, as many, fearful of their vote being stolen away, took to the streets to protest.
With the electoral process becoming increasingly farcical, international observers and other countries reacted. Even the United States, Pakistan’s long-term ally, put out a statement of concern.
“We condemn electoral violence, restrictions on the exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms, including attacks on media workers, and restrictions on access to the Internet and telecommunication services, and are concerned about allegations of interference in the electoral process. Claims of interference or fraud should be fully investigated,” the statement read.
US State department condemned electoral violence, restrictions on access to the Internet and telecommunication services, and concerned about allegations of interference in the electoral process. Claims of interference or fraud should be fully investigated.
— Hamid Mir حامد میر (@HamidMirPAK) February 9, 2024
Most importantly, however, the blatant attempt to subvert the mandate of the people enraged average Pakistanis. As Dawn’s editorial on Saturday stated: “there is much anger against the establishment’s open and constant interference in civilian matters… the state must realise that, sometimes, a vote for the underdog is a vote against the establishment.”
So, what happens now?
As per the latest figures from the Election Commission of Pakistan, accounting for 251 of 266 seats in play, PTI-backed candidates are winning in 91 seats, followed by PML-N with 71 seats, and Bilawal Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party with 54 seats (sourced from Dawn).
While many have questioned these figures — at one time, PTI-backed candidates’ tally was over 120 — this nonetheless means that no one party will carry a majority to Pakistan’s National Assembly. A coalition government is the most likely outcome.
Nawaz Sharif, declaring victory Friday night, hinted that his party would lead a ruling coalition. “We don’t have enough of a majority to form a government without the support of others and we invite allies to join the coalition so we can make joint efforts to pull Pakistan out of its problems,” Sharif said.
Reports suggest that a Nawaz and Bhutto-Zardari coalition is all but finalised. Nawaz’s brother and former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Zardari met on Friday to discuss forming a “unity government”. Such a government will likely see Nawaz Sharif as PM with Bilawal Bhutto holding high office.
However, it is yet to be seen how the Pakistani public will react to such a result, especially if Imran Khan denies its legitimacy.
قوم کی جانب سے انتخابات میں تاریخی مقابلے، جس کے نتیجے میں تحریک انصاف کو عام انتخابات 2024 میں بے مثال کامیابی میسرآئی،کے بعد چیئرمین عمران خان کا(مصنوعی ذہانت سے تیار کردہ) فاتحانہ خطاب pic.twitter.com/8yQqes4nO9
— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) February 9, 2024
Following Nawaz’s victory statement, Imran Khan’s Twitter account posted an artificial intelligence-generated message congratulating his supporters on winning the 2024 elections. “I trusted that you all would come out to vote – and you honoured that trust and your massive turnout has shocked everyone,” the message said, adding that they must now “protect their vote”, and not accept Nawaz Sharif’s claims of victory.
But with Imran in prison, the Establishment will also try to chip away at the PTI-backed independents. Given that they officially do not belong to any party, engineering defections is going to be somewhat simpler. The coming days will thus be a test of loyalty for those in Imran’s camp.
The final factor in play is international pressure, especially from the US. While the State Department’s statement would have raised some eyebrows in Rawalpindi, it has yet to translate into any tangible action which will have an impact on the ground.